Aku dan AI

Dalam buku I Am a Strange Loop, Douglas Hofstadter membangun postulat filosofis bahwa kesadaran bukanlah sesuatu yang bersifat spiritual. Tapi andai lahir dari struktur material, seperti apa terbentuknya? Hofstadter menggambarkan struktur rekursif yang ia sebut simpul ganjil (Strange Loop), yaitu jaringan pengolahan informasi abstraksi yang bersusunan hierarki dalam lapis-lapis, namun akhirnya secara paradoksal kembali ke titik awalnya. Hofstadter menggunakan metafora video feedback, yaitu sebuah kamera yang merekam layar yang menampilkan hasil rekaman kamera itu sendiri, untuk mengilustrasikan bagaimana tumpukan pemrosesan simbol di otak saling mengamati dan saling bercermin. Proses ini melibatkan pergerakan lintas level: dari sinyal neurobiologis mentah, naik ke simbol konsep melalui mekanisme chunking (kompresi jutaan detail mikro menjadi unit makna makro), hingga mencapai metakognisi. Di puncak kompleksitas inilah muncul kesadaran identitas, atau si aku, bukan sebagai pilot fisik, melainkan sebagai halusinasi stabil atau pola abstrak yang lahir dari interaksi simbol-simbol tersebut. Lebih jauh, Hofstadter menekankan kekuatan downward causality, di mana pola pikir abstrak ini memiliki otoritas kausal untuk mengendalikan materi fisik otak, mematahkan pandangan reduksionis bahwa hanya materi yang bisa menggerakkan materi.

Perpektif dari awal abad ke-21 ini mendapatkan tanggapan berupa dikotomi yang tajam. Di satu sisi, visi Hofstadter tentang diri sebagai konstruksi virtual mendapatkan validasi kuat dari neurosains modern, sejalan dengan teori The Ego Tunnel (Thomas Metzinger) dan Predictive Processing (Karl Friston) yang memandang otak sebagai mesin prediksi bayesian. Namun, di ranah Kecerdasan Buatan, model kerja Symbolic AI yang dibayangkan Hofstadter, yang beroperasi dengan logika transparan, telah tergeser oleh dominasi deep learning yang bersifat koneksionis. AI modern seperti LLM tidak bekerja dengan memahami proses fundamental atau memiliki strange loop filosofis. Mesin AI terkini adalah mesin kalkulasi statistik yang menghasilkan result akurat melalui serangkaian revisi berbasis umpan balik (feedback) masif. Mesin ini tidak merepresentasikan proses berpikir layaknya manusia, melainkan mensimulasikan hasil pemikiran tersebut untuk mencapai ketepatan pragmatis.

Aku malah melihat perbedaan arsitektur ini menarik. Bisa jadi simbiosis kognitif yang menarik. Proses berpikir manusia, terutama para expert seperti kita, seringkali bersifat non-linear, chaotic, dan melompat-lompat melalui intuisi pengenalan pola yang kompleks. Seringkali, manusia mampu mengambil keputusan yang sangat optimal dalam waktu singkat, bahkan ketika variabel data yang tersedia seolah tidak optimal atau bahkan berantakan. Ini pastinya kemampuan inference tingkat tinggi yang sulit dijelaskan secara verbal karena sifatnya yang tacit (tersembunyi). Di sini kita justru dapat memanfaatkan kembali peran AI (LLM), bukan sebagai pengambil keputusan, melainkan sebagai alat yang menjelaskan keputusan kita. Kita memanfaatkan kemampuan kalkulasi AI untuk merasionalisasi dan menarasikan mengapa sebuah keputusan kita ambil dengan pola pikir yang cerdas namun chaotic dan non-linear itu. Wkwk. Ini tentunya kebalikan dari konsep explainable AI (XAI). Mesinlah justru membantu menjelaskan manusia, memungkinkan validitas narasi yang terstruktur untuk mengejar kecepatan intuisi yang abstrak. Ini juga dapat dimanfaatkan pada knowledgeme management untuk konversi dari pengetahuan tacit menjadi pengetahuan eksplisit.

Kita hidup di era di mana sirkuit chaos manusia, yang penuh intuisi serta lompatan logika dan arah membutuhkan sirkuit order dari mesin yang formal, terstruktur, dan rapi untuk validasi dalam komunikasi, negosiasi, bahkan administrasi. Kita, para penyisir ombak kompleksitas, dapat menganggap simbiosis ini sebagai perangkat evolusi yang menarik. Kekuatan simbolik kita tetap menjadi inti dalam mengarahkan tujuan kepemimpinan kita, dan AI memastikan narasi, komunikasi, detail langkah. Kolaborasi lintas spesies yang aneh, tapi mungkin bisa efektif.

Београд

Hari pertama tahun 2026 ini aku buka di Beograd.

Di bandara Nikola Tesla, baru berapa puluh langkah keluar dari Air Serbia, tiga orang berseragam gelap dengan identitas kepolisian sangat tegap menghalangi jalan. Petugas di tengah meminta passport, lalu bertanya «Why coming to Serbia?» sambil membalik setiap halaman di password dan memeriksanya menerawang cahaya untuk memastikan keaslian setiap halaman. Ini sebelum masuk ke antrian imigrasi. Di loket imigrasi, petugas dengan seragam biru muda dengan identitas kepolisian dan muka kaku yang sama menanyakan hal yang sama «Why visiting Serbia?» sambil menatap tajam. Kutatap tajam balik seperti warga dari dua negara bersahabat yang saling teliti. Setelah membolak balik setiap halaman passport (tanpa diterawang ke cahaya), petugas ini menanyakan satu hal lagi, «Visa?» dan aku jawab tegas «No visa.» Ia mengangguk dan memberi cap «Српски Београд» dan mempersilakan keluar.

Di luar bandara, suhu serendah -1ºC. Bis merah A1 sudah menunggu. Driver berteriak menyuruh penumpang menaruh sendiri koper di bagasi belakang, baru membayar cash 400 dinar per penumpang. Pintu dibanting, dan minibus yang padat sesak mengantar ke pusat kota Beograd. Aku turun di Stasiun Novi Beograd, dan melanjutkan ke hotelku di kawasan pedestrian Knez Mihailova. Di hotel ini, resepsionis bernama Marija menyambut sangat ramah, hangat, dan memberikan tips bagaimana bertransportasi di Beograd dan Serbia pada umumnya. Ruangannya juga hangat nyaman (tidak panas). Perfect. Kontras sekali keramahan di tengah kota Beograd ini dengan imigrasi dan transportasinya.

Serbia lahir dari sejarah yang tidak pernah linear. Bukan bangsa yang tumbuh dalam satu arah peradaban, melainkan dibentuk di persimpangan Bizantium, Utsmani, dan Eropa Tengah. Prakarsanya dalam membentuk Yugoslavia sebagai upaya penyatuan bangsa-bangsa Slav selatan di abad lalu telah memperbesar paradoks itu. Penyatuan bangsa serumpun yang berbeda agama (di Eropa masa lalu, agama adalah identitas politik), aksara (=komunikasi dan budaya), dan sejarah (=budaya) itu terbukti gagal, memecah Yugoslavia, namun tidak meruntuhkan Serbia. Serbia kembali pada komitmennya menjadi pusat budaya yang mandiri di Eropa Tenggara, tanpa terobsesi menjadi bagian dari Eropa yang sangat berorientasi Barat. Integrasi Eropa diupayakan, namun bersifat pragmatis, tanpa menggantungkan harga diri pada validasi Eropa. Sikap ini lahir dari panjangnya pengalaman hidup di bawah pendudukan Utsmany, pendudukan Axis pada PD I & II, komunisme nasional dan penyatuan Yugoslavia, sanksi internasional akibat kekejaman di Bosnia, dan keterasingan ekonomi.

Kepribadian itu jelas terbaca di Beograd. Kota ini mungkin tidak secantik Praha, Bratislava, Budapest, atau berbagai kota di Eropa Tengah. Kota ini brutal dan kontras. Benteng Romawi berdampingan dengan jejak Utsmany, bangunan Habsburg, blok-blok sosialis beton, dan improvisasi urban pasca-Yugoslavia yang semuanya disusun bertumpuk tanpa disembunyikan. Huruf-huruf sirilik berdampingan dengan huruf-huruf latin dalam bahasa Slav selatan, dan keduanya memiliki keunikan: huruf sirilik yang berbeda dengan Russia, dan huruf latin dengan tambahan diakritik yang unik. Luka sejarah tidak dihapus di sini. Brutalisme bukan menjadi kegagalan estetika, tapi justru menunjukkan kejujuran fungsi dan kekuasaan, dilengkapi dengan vitalitas sosial yang tidak pretensius.

Baik di Beograd dan Novi Sad (kota budaya yang aku kunjungi berikutnya), kita menemui paduan manusia yang sangat ramah dan sangat kaku. Brutal membanting pintu mobil, tapi ramah memberikan informasi apa pun. Sopir taxi di Petrovaradin tanpa ditanya memberi tahu alur kembali dari Novi Sad ke Petrovaradin dengan bis agar lebih murah. Toko buku sangat banyak di pusat kota Beograd dan Novi Sad. Ciri-ciri negeri dengan banyak orang cerdas. Tentu sebagian besar buku dalam bahasa Serbia, bagian Shtokavia dari bahasa Slav Selatan, dan banyak dijual dalam edisi sirilik maupun latin. Uniknya, toko buku pertama yang aku masuki memiliki kasir yang berasal dari Banjaluka, Bosnia.

Selain museum, perpustakaan, taman, dan benteng, pusat-pusat kota juga merupakan pusat kunjungan yang menunjukkan budaya unik Serbia. Negeri ini tetap penting di Eropa Tenggara. Ia memilih menjadi simpul, dan bukan panggung. Keunikan Serbia terletak pada kemampuan hidup dengan kontradiksi: ortodoks tetapi sosial, nasional tetapi tidak romantik, persimpangan timur dan barat tanpa inferioritas, serta dua aksara yang hadir setara tanpa krisis identitas. Warisan Utsmany membentuk ritme sosial dan kecerdikan bertahan, warisan Eropa memberi nilai rasionalitas, dan pengalaman Yugoslavia mengajarkan skeptisisme terhadap proyek besar. Hasilnya adalah negara dan kota yang mungkin tidak akan masuk rank dalam keindahan, tetapi tetap menunjukkan energi yang nyata, kekuatan inspirasi, dan kepribadiannya utuh. Serbia hanya mencoba berpoles sendikit, sambil memilih hadir apa adanya.

Hari terakhir di Beograd, aku kembali ke bandara Nikola Tesla. Tanda penunjuk membawaku langsung ke gerbang imigrasi (sebelum sempat checkin dan baggage drop-in). Kali ini petugasnya seorang perempuan muda dengan wajah agak melankolis. Ia menyambut dengan senyum lucu dan sangat bersahabat. «I am tired,» katanya. «Because of the New Year’s party?» «No, I was working during New Year’s eve,» katanya sambil melihat isi passportku, lalu memberikan cap. «Well, happy New Year and more success for you!» kataku. Ia membalas, «You too.» Bahkan imigrasipun kontras antara pintu masuk dan pintu keluar. Sukses selalu untuk negeri Serbia yang selalu kontroversial.

IEEE Fest & TEUB Workshop

I was invited to IEEE Fest 2025 as a representative of the IEEE Indonesia Section Advisory Board. The event was hosted by the IEEE Brawijaya University Student Branch in Malang on 18 October 2025, led by the Chair, Muhammad Asyir Zarkasih. The program was commenced by the Vice-Rector for Student Affairs and Entrepreneurship, Dr Setiawan Noerdajasakti, together with the university’s faculty and departmental leaders. It was particularly noteworthy to see IEEE SBUB expanding beyond its traditional STEM roots into areas such as management and law.

In my short welcoming remarks, I encouraged the strengthening of enthusiasm, commitment, and innovation capability through collaboration, making use of available channels while initiating the door for broader engagement across IEEE’s various organisational units and programs. In a landscape as complex as today’s, challenges are indeed easier to navigate together; but more than that, complex collaboration often reveals new opportunities, both in innovation and in business.

Prior to the event, in the holding room, we had a discussion with the Vice-Rector on reinforcing an innovation-driven entrepreneurial ecosystem that leverages Telkom Group’s digital platforms and connectivity, alongside the strong collaborative resources of IEEE, including IEEE Indonesia Section. Follow-up actions are now being prepared at both university and faculty levels.

I specifically requested that the founding generation of Workshop TEUB, i.e. several alumni from the E88 cohort, to be present as well. Workshop TEUB was established by a trio: Sigit Shalako Abdurajak, Widiyanto, and yours truly; together with the early activists who were deeply involved in innovation and training initiatives. Several of them were able to attend the event: Saiful Hidayat, Aries Boedi Setiawan, Moch Iszar, and others who unfortunately could not join.

We originally founded the Workshop to address significant limitations in academic content as well as the capability and capacity gaps within our alma mater at the time. To our surprise and pride, the next generations have carried the Workshop far beyond what we imagined. Now operating as an autonomous unit under HME, it has grown into a hub of innovation excellence. The current Head of the Workshop is Akmal Mulki Majid.

IEEE Fest 2025 also featured a student innovation exhibition, presented through a series of presentations and booths from units under HME and the Workshop, along with various other innovation teams across the university. Students showcased their leading work, including IoT implementations, robotics platforms, and their early integrations with intelligent systems. One highlight was Elektro Formula Brawijaya, an EV innovation bridging technological capability with real-world demands. These exhibitions showed that UB students are not merely following technological trends. They are confidently pushing past them, designing precise, concrete solutions ready for industrial validation.

Alongside the exhibition, we conducted a tour of the Workshop and the Electrical Engineering laboratories, accompanied among others by the HME Chair, M Iqbal Maulana. This included, of course, the Electronics Lab, where Sigit Shalako and I once served as lab assistants. The lab has since moved location and now operates with far more advanced, high-precision experimental modules.

The event itself lasted only a day, but the collaboration certainly will not stop there. Technical consultations, sociopreneurship initiatives, and new strategic partnership pathways will continue to grow, strengthening the innovation ecosystem and supporting the sustainable development of national talents.

IEEE Fest & Workshop TEUB

Aku diundang sebagai representatif IEEE Indonesia Section Advisory Board pada IEEE Fest 2025 yang digelar IEEE Brawijaya University Student Branch di Malang, 18 Oktober 2025. Ketuanya Muhammad Asyir Zarkasih, sebagai Chair of IEEE SBUB. Kegiatan ini dibuka Warek UB fidang Kemahasiswaan dan Kewirausahaan, Dr Setiawan Noerdajasakti, serta para pimpinan fakultas dan jurusan. Ini menarik, karena IEEE SBUB benar-benar berekspansi dari jurusan-jurusan yang bersifat STEM, ke bidang seperti manajemen dan hukum.

Welcoming speech pendek dari aku lebih mendorong ditingkatkannya antusiasme, komitman, dan kapabilitas inovasi melalui kolaborasi dengan jalur yang sudah tersedia dan dikembangkan lebih luas lagi melalui berbagai OU dan program di IEEE. Di tengah situasi kompleks, bukan saja tantanagn lebih mungkin diselesaikan bersama; namun seringkali kita memperoleh banyak peluang baru dari sisi inovasi dan bisnis melalui kolaborasi kompleks ini.

Berbincang sebelumnya di holding room dengan Warek, kami membahas penguatan ekosistem kewirausahaan berbasis inovasi yang memanfaatkan platform digital dan konektivitas Telkom Group, serta kolaborasi inovatif yang sangat kuat dari IEEE termasuk IEEE Indonesia Section. Tindak lanjutnya kini disiapkan di tingkat universitas maupun fakultas.

Khusus tahun ini, aku minta dapat dihadirkan generasi pendiri Workshop TEUB juga, yaitu beberapa alumni E88. Workshop TEUB didirikan trio Sigit Shalako Abdurajak, Widiyanto, dan aku sendiri; serta para aktivitas angkatan awal yang aktif pada bidang inovasi dan pelatihan, termasuk yang hadir di kegiatan ini: Saiful Hidayat, Aries Boedi Setiawan, Moch Iszar, dan rekan-rekan lain yang belum bisa hadir. Workshop ini kami dirikan untuk menghadapi banyak keterbatasan konten akademis serta kapabilisa dan kapasitas almamater kami tahun awal itu; dan kami sendiri malah takjub bahwa para penerus kami terus mengembangkan Workshop ini (sekarang sebagai unit otonom bawah HME) mencapai keunggulan inovasi seperti saat ini. Kepala Workshop saat ini adalah Akmal Mulki Majid.

IEEE Fest 2025 juga menampilkan pameran inovasi mahasiswa dalam bentuk presentasi dan booth dari berbagai unit di bawah HME dan Workshop, serta unit-unit inovasi kampus lainnya. Para mahasiswa memamerkan karya unggulan, termasuk implementasi IoT, platform robotika, hingga integrasi dengan sistem cerdas. Salah satunya adalah Elektro Formula Brawijaya, yaitu inovasi EV yang menjembatani kapabilitas teknologi dan kebutuhan dunia nyata. Pameran ini memperlihatkan bagaimana mahasiswa UB tak sekadar mengikuti perkembangan teknologi, tetapi juga berani melintasi batasnya: merancang solusi konkret, presisi, dan siap diuji dalam konteks industri.

Paralel kegiatan pameran, kami melakukan kunjungan ke Workshop dan laboratorium di Teknik Elektro. Dikawal a.l. oleh Ketua HME, M Iqbal Maulana. Termasuk tentunya ke Lab Elektronika, tempat aku jadi lab assistant bersama Sigit Shalako. Labnya sudah pindah tempat, lebih maju, dengan modul eksperimen presisi tinggi.

Acaranya satu hari, tapi kolaborasi tentu tidak berhenti. Konsultasi teknis, program sociopreneurship, dan rintisan kemitraan strategis akan makin dikembangkan berjalan untuk memperkuat ekosistem inovasi dan mendukung pengembangan talenta nasional secara berkelanjutan.

IEEE R10 HTC 2025

Minggu lalu, IEEE Region 10 menyelenggarakan Humanitarian Technology Conference (HTC) 2025 di Chiba University of Commerce, Jepang, 28 September hingga 1 Oktober, yang mempertemukan para visioner global dengan mengusung tema “Beyond SDGs, A New Humanitarian Era with Intelligent Partners.” Konferensi ini menyoroti sinergi antara intelektualitas manusia dan sistem cerdas yang berkembang dalam meningkatkan dampak kemanusiaan melalui teknologi.

Saat Pembukaan, Presiden IEEE Humanitarian Technologies Board (HTB) Grayson Randall menyampaikan speech yang menekankan peran istimewa profesi insinyur dalam meningkatkan kualitas hidup manusia. Pesannya menegaskan bahwa insinyur bukan sekadar pemecah masalah, melainkan arsitek harapan yang mampu menjembatani inovasi dengan tanggung jawab sosial. Ia juga memaparkan berbagai peluang baru dalam program-program HT untuk mendorong proyek yang inklusif dan berdampak luas di kawasan Asia-Pasifik. Pada hari kedua, IEEE President-Elect Mary Ellen Randall menyampaikan keynote speech yang visioner tentang roadmap IEEE dalam memajukan profesi rekayasa selaras dengan tujuan pembangunan manusia global. Ia menjelaskan bagaimana arah strategis IEEE, termasuk etika digital dan inovasi berkelanjutan, berfokus pada satu misi utama, peningkatan kualitas hidup manusia melalui kolaborasi yang cerdas.

Hari ke-3 (1 Oktober), aku berpresentasi dalam Program Khusus 15 dengan judul “Synergy for Sustainable Impact.” Sesi ini dimoderatori oleh Allya Paramitha, dengan para panelis Hidenobu Harasaki, Husain Mahdi, Agnes Irwanti, Bernard Lim, Chie Sato, Saurabh Soni, dan aku sendiri. Diskusi membahas mekanisme kolaboratif antara teknologi, kebijakan, dan inovasi sosial untuk mempercepat hasil kemanusiaan yang berkelanjutan. Aku nyaris selalu memulai presentasi tentang sinergi, ekosistem, dan kolaborasi industri dengan menempatkannya dalam framework teori kompleksitas, yang menunjukkan bagaimana sinergi dapat menghasilkan nilai emergence secara non-linear dalam ekosistem kompleksitas. Fenomena emergensi inilah yang menjadi kunci transformasi menuju pencapaian SDG, khususnya dalam memperkuat inklusivitas, ketahanan, dan keadilan.

Aku mengacu pada visi nasional Indonesia, dengan menjelaskan pengembangan ekosistem komersialisasi UMKM sebagai model penerapan teknologi kemanusiaan. Melalui program-program yang meliputi juga pembiayaan mikro, platform digital, dan pemberdayaan koperasi, kita menunjukkan bagaimana teknologi dapat mengangkat pasar yang sebelumnya belum tergarap menjadi sistem yang produktif dan berkelanjutan. Aku juga memaparkan case dimana IEEE Indonesia SIGHT in Sociopreneurship and Sustainability melaksanakan program pengembangan kapasitas bagi Student Branch IEEE Indonesia, yang masing-masing merancang solusi lokal seperti sistem air tenaga surya, pemantauan berbasis IoT, dan inkubasi sosiopreneurship, sebagaimana sedang dijalankan oleh Universitas Gadjah Mada dan Universitas Udayana. Proyek-proyek ini menunjukkan bagaimana keterlibatan berbasis rekayasa dapat berkembang menjadi sociopreneurship yang digerakkan oleh komunitas, dengan menjamin keberlanjutan melalui kepemilikan, replikasi, dan dampak yang terukur.

Pada Hari ke-0 (28 September), aku juga menceritakan versi ringkas program-program ini ke IEEE President-Elect Mary Ellen Randall dan HTB President Grayson Randall. Diskusi ini menjadi landasan bagi pengembangan lebih lanjut program kemanusiaan IEEE di Indonesia dan kawasan Asia-Pasifik, dengan fokus pada ekosistem digital, sosiopreneurship, dan model inovasi berkelanjutan. Program ini juga aku sampaikan dalam Program Khusus 13 (30 September), “From Innovation to Impact: Advancing IEEE Humanitarian Initiatives”, dalam HTA Forum untuk membahas penyelarasan strategis antara kerangka kemanusiaan IEEE dan pengembangan ekosistem regional.

IEEE R10 HTC 2025 ini bukan hanya diskusi antara gagasan, tetapi lebih sebagai aktivitas dinamis dari sinergi, serta perpaduan antara intelektualitas, empati, dan teknologi. Konferensi ini menegaskan bahwa keinsinyuran bukan sekadar tentang mesin atau sistem, melainkan selalu tentang kemanusiaan. IEEE R10 HTC 2025 menjadi tonggak lain dalam perjalanan kolektif untuk membangun dunia yang lebih adil, tangguh, dan berkelanjutan, digerakkan oleh wawasan manusia dan inovasi cerdas.

IEEE HTC 2025

The IEEE Region 10 Humanitarian Technology Conference (HTC) 2025 was carried out at Chiba University of Commerce, Japan, from 28 September to 1 October, bringing together global visionaries under the theme “Beyond SDGs, A New Humanitarian Era with Intelligent Partners.” The conference highlighted the synergy between human intellect and emerging intelligent systems in advancing humanitarian impact through technology.

During the Opening Ceremony, Grayson Randall, President of the IEEE Humanitarian Technologies Board (HTB), delivered an address emphasising the special position of the engineering profession in improving and enhancing the quality of life. His message underscored that engineers are not merely problem-solvers but architects of hope, capable of bridging innovation with social responsibility. He further presented new opportunities within HT programmes to stimulate inclusive and impactful projects across the Asia-Pacific region. On the second day, IEEE President-Elect Mary Ellen Randall presented a visionary keynote speech outlining IEEE’s roadmap for advancing the engineering profession in alignment with global human development goals. She articulated how IEEE’s strategic directions, from digital ethics to sustainable innovation, converge towards one essential mission, the enhancement of human life quality through intelligent collaboration.

On Day 3 (1 October), I delivered my presentation in Special Program 15, titled “Synergy for Sustainable Impact.” The session, moderated by Allya Paramitha, brought together distinguished panellists Hidenobu Harasaki, Husain Mahdi, Agnes Irwanti, Bernard Lim, Chie Sato, Saurabh Soni, and your truly. The discussion explored collaborative mechanisms between technology, policy, and social innovation to accelerate humanitarian outcomes through sustainable synergy. I often begin my presentations on synergy, ecosystems, and industry collaboration by framing them within the principles of complexity theory, illustrating how synergies can generate emergent, non-linear value in complex socio-technical ecosystems. These emergences are the key to the transformations central to achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly in fostering inclusivity, resilience, and equity.

Drawing from Indonesia’s national vision, I illustrated how the MSME commerce ecosystem has become a model of humanitarian technology application in real-world contexts. Through programmes focusing on microfinance, digital platforms, and cooperative empowerment, the framework demonstrated how technology can elevate non-consumption markets into productive and sustainable systems. I also shared case studies in which IEEE Indonesia SIGHT in Sociopreneurship and Sustainability provides capability building for IEEE Indonesia Student Branches, each designing local solutions including solar-powered water systems, IoT monitoring, and sociopreneurship incubation, as currently being undertaken by Gadjah Mada University and Udayana University. These projects exemplify how engineering-led engagements can evolve into community-driven sociopreneurship, ensuring sustainability through ownership, replication, and measurable impact.

On Day 0 (28 September), I provided a briefing on these programmes to IEEE President-Elect Mary Ellen Randall and HTB President Grayson Randall. These exchanges laid the groundwork for advancing IEEE humanitarian initiatives in Indonesia and the Asia-Pacific region, focusing on digital ecosystems, sociopreneurship, and sustainable innovation models. I also discussed these programmes during Special Program 13 (30 September), “From Innovation to Impact: Advancing IEEE Humanitarian Initiatives”, where I joined the HTA Forum to discuss strategic alignment between IEEE humanitarian frameworks and regional ecosystem development.

The IEEE R10 HTC 2025 stood out not only as a conference of ideas but as a living demonstration of synergy, the fusion of intellect, empathy, and technology. The conference reaffirmed a timeless truth, engineering is not merely about machines or systems, but about humanity itself. The IEEE R10 HTC 2025 thus marked another milestone in the collective journey to build a more equitable, resilient, and sustainable world, powered by both human insight and intelligent innovation.

Synergy Value as Emergence

When considering mergers, acquisitions, alliances, or even intra-group synergies, it is useful to shift our perspective away from additive arithmetic and towards the philosophy of emergence. In complex systems, including business ecosystems as complex adaptive systems, value does not reside solely within the parts; rather, it arises through the patterned interactions between them. This emergent phenomenon is precisely what in corporate finance is labelled synergy value. In formal terms, we may describe the total incremental value of a collaboration as

where V(x; G) denotes the value of the whole system, generated by the vector of resources and activities x under a specific governance structure G, and ∑V represents the value of each entity in isolation. The very fact that ΔV may be greater than zero testifies to emergence: complementarities in action, dependencies properly orchestrated, and adaptive patterns unfolding across the system.

The Levers of Emergent Synergy

Four principal levers determine whether emergent value materialises or evaporates. The first is complementarity, or what economists term supermodularity. This describes the situation in which activities reinforce each other such that the marginal return of undertaking one activity is enhanced by the undertaking of another; formally, the cross-partial derivatives are positive (𝛿²V/𝛿xi 𝛿xj > 0). It is here that the popular slogan “one plus one equals more than two” has rigorous grounding.

The second lever is the interdependence structure. Every collaboration has a topology of dependencies, where some assets act as complements, others as substitutes, and some nodes become bottlenecks through which the value of the entire system is channelled. In business ecosystems, mapping this structure is indispensable, for it often dictates whether modularity and flexible linkages suffice, or whether full absorption is required.

The third lever is defined by the adaptive rules of the system. A collaboration is not static; it is a complex adaptive system in which local decisions, feedback loops, and routines create new global patterns. Where local experimentation is permitted, and where feedback loops are properly designed, valuable behaviours diffuse through the organisation or alliance. Where rigidity prevails, the system is condemned to stasis, and synergy remains a theoretical promise rather than an emergent reality.

Finally, there is the matter of orchestration capacity. This refers to the dynamic capabilities of leadership—sensing opportunities, seizing them through resource allocation, and reconfiguring the system as environments change. Ashby’s principle of requisite variety reminds us that the variety of governance and decision-making tools must match the variety and volatility of the environment. Without adequate orchestration, even strong complementarities and favourable topologies may collapse under the weight of integration costs.

Applications Across Collaboration Types

In mergers and acquisitions, the choice of integration model should mirror the degree of interdependence. The celebrated Haspeslagh–Jemison framework reminds us that absorption is not always optimal; linkage or preservation may unlock more emergent value when autonomy is vital. The risk of the so-called synergy mirage lies precisely in misjudging complementarities and ignoring the time it takes for emergent patterns to stabilise. Thus, every acquisition is less a completed transaction than a hypothesis about the future, whose proof lies in the integration process.

In alliances and joint ventures, synergy takes the form of options on emergence. Here, limited commitments allow parties to test complementarities without over-committing capital. The collaborative form is well-suited to contexts of uncertainty, where exploration of emergent patterns is required. Ecosystem logic also applies: co-opetition and the management of network externalities often define the extent of emergent value.

For intra-group business synergy, emergence must be cultivated across corporate units. Here, Herbert Simon’s notion of near-decomposability becomes instructive: groups should design modular interfaces so that subsidiaries adapt locally yet align globally. To maintain cooperation, emergent rents must be shared fairly; cooperative game theory suggests the Shapley value as one method of allocating incremental value in proportion to each unit’s marginal contribution. Without such fairness, group members are tempted to defect, undermining the collaborative potential of the system.

Measuring and Governing Emergence

Because synergy is emergent, it resists simple enumeration. Yet it is not beyond the reach of disciplined measurement. One may begin with a complementarity map, estimating where cross-partials are most positive, and therefore where joint action may yield the greatest return. Alongside, an ecosystem dependency graph may be drawn, in the spirit of Ron Adner’s ecosystem mapping, to reveal missing complements and bottlenecks whose removal could unlock value.

Where uncertainty is high, the logic of real options should prevail. Pilot projects, staged investments, or minority stakes serve as options to explore emergent potential without risking catastrophic downside. Parallel to this, a system of synergy accounting may be implemented, in which incremental value is decomposed using Shapley allocations, thereby aligning incentives with marginal contributions to the whole.

The Philosophical Bottom Line

Synergy lives not in assets but in interactions. Corporate actions—whether a merger, an alliance, or an intra-group initiative—are best understood as interventions in a complex system. When complementarities are strong, interdependencies are designed with care, adaptive rules permit experimentation, and orchestration capacity is sufficient, emergent synergy is more than a hopeful metaphor; it becomes an observable reality. Conversely, where these levers are mismanaged, the promised “1 + 1 > 2” dissolves into disappointment, integration costs, and value destruction.

Thus, the philosophy of emergence, long a staple of complexity science, is not an academic curiosity but a practical guide to business collaboration. It teaches us that the true measure of a deal or alliance lies not in the parts themselves, but in the patterns of interaction that the collaboration enables.

MSME Financing

Now about the MSME ecosystem.

The Govt has repeatedly mentioned that we have 65 million MSMEs in Indonesia, and that the MSME are the very backbone of the national economy: they contribute ±61% of GDP and provide ±120 million jobs, nearly the entire labour force. Yet for all their importance, they are treated with something close to neglect by national financial system. While state banks happily court the large corporates and property developers, the millions of small firms that keep the country running receive less than 20% of their credit. And when the MSME secure a loan, they pay dearly for it, at interest rates of 12%–18% per year, even when BI’s rate rests at 5%. A curious kind of financial apartheid: the majority does the heavy lifting, the minority enjoys the cheap capital.

The Minister of Finance, to add insult to injury, has been swifter at taxing MSME than at financing them. Efforts to broaden the tax base focus on micro firms while the big players continue to enjoy exemptions, incentives, and creative loopholes. Programs intended to strengthen domestic small industry, remain piecemeal, minimally supported, and shifted instead to use the MSME data for taxing. The rhetoric is that MSMEs are the backbone of the economy; the practice is that they are milked like docile cows for easy revenue, without being fed the credit that might fatten them into global competitors.

There is surely the KUR program the Govt always mentions, which offers subsidised credit to small businesses. In H1/2025, around Rp 133T was disbursed to some 2.3 million borrowers. That number is impressive on its own, yet it reaches only 3% or 4% of the total MSME population. And the balance is skewed beyond recognition: nearly 1.9 million of those borrowers were micro firms, a modest 159 thousand were small firms, and a mere 16 thousand were so-called ultra-micro. Medium-sized enterprises are excluded entirely, with the optimistic expectation that they will graduate to commercial loans — a graduation ceremony that only rarely takes place.

KUR is not nothing, but neither is it enough. What Indonesia needs is a breakthrough: a national credit guarantee scheme that shares risks between the state and the banks and, in doing so, brings down lending rates while opening the doors of finance to millions who are currently shut out. The idea is simple. If a portion of loans in a defined portfolio go bad, the state-backed guarantor pays part of the loss. With that safety net in place, banks can lend at lower rates and to a wider circle of borrowers.

This is not some wild experiment. South Korea’s KODIT has long guaranteed up to 85% of SME loans; Japan’s municipal credit guarantee corporations have done the same for decades, usually at 80% coverage. The US Small Business Administration runs its own guarantees on 75% to 85% of small business loans. Europe operates portfolio schemes through InvestEU. The lesson is consistent: when governments shoulder part of the risk, banks lend more, charge less, and the fiscal costs remain entirely manageable.

What would this look like in Indonesia? Imagine a scheme supporting 1.5 million loans per year, with an average size of Rp 150 million, creating an annual portfolio of roughly Rp 225T. The guarantor would cover 40% of first losses, capped at 10% of the portfolio to prevent excess. Banks would pay a fee of 1.8% p.a., softened by a small state subsidy of 0.4%. In practice, this would mean loans to small businesses priced at about 3.5% lower than they are today. The expected fiscal cost to the state would be about Rp 2.3T per year, with a guarantor capital buffer of roughly Rp 8T. For the price of a single prestige infrastructure project, the government could transform access to finance for millions of enterprises.

The institutions are already there. Jamkrindo and Askrindo could act as front-line guarantors just like KUR. PII could serve as a backstop. Multilateral lenders such as the World Bank, ADB, or IsDB could add further insurance, while state and private banks would originate the loans. Oversight and enforcement would fall to the Ministry of Finance, Bank Indonesia, and the Financial Services Authority (OJK), with the Ministry of MSME ensuring that outreach truly extends beyond Java and into women-owned and first-time borrowers.

The expected results could be far from trivial. With 1.5 million new loans guaranteed each year, more small firms would cross into the formal economy. Average borrowing rates would fall from the current 12% to 15% into the single digits. Employment would grow by perhaps one million jobs a year, as enterprises invest and expand. GDP growth would tick upward by at least 0.5%. And because borrowers under the scheme must be formally registered, the tax base would widen, meaning the program could ultimately pay for itself.

Indonesia cannot hope to reach sustained 6%–7% growth while its entrepreneurs are trapped in a high-cost credit desert. This lending guarantee program would provide them with the rain they need. Alongside, the state should push forward with digital credit scoring, drawing on tax, e-commerce, and utility data; it should open the way for SME bonds and securitisation; and it should modernise collateral laws so that machinery, vehicles, and inventory can be pledged as security, not only land and buildings.

Without accelarating these programs, Indonesia risks remaining a dual economy: one world of corporates enjoying cheap capital and tax incentives, and another of millions of MSMEs left to carry the country on their backs while paying through the nose for the privilege.

A Failed Country, A Failed Government

A failed government is not defined by temporary setbacks, nor even by economic hardship. It is defined by a collapse of legitimacy, when the people no longer see leaders as protectors, but as predators. When power is used not to govern, but to plunder. When truth is buried beneath propaganda, and dissent is silenced by force rather than answered by reason.

A failed country is not a land without wealth, but a land where justice is absent. Where security is traded for fear, opportunity for favoritism, and institutions rot from within. It is when corruption becomes the operating system, and the constitution nothing more than a decorative relic.

Here’s the darkened Garuda, stripped of its golden radiance. The bull, once a symbol of democracy, now stares hollow-eyed as public will is sold to the highest bidder. The banyan tree, meant to represent unity, now casts shadows of division and fragmentation. The rice and cotton, symbols of prosperity, lie barren under monopolies and systemic greed. The chain, once the strength of solidarity, rusts into a shackle of oppression. And the star, once a guiding light, dims into the emptiness of hypocrisy.

The government has failed. The system has failed. But a nation dies only if its people surrender. The Garuda in darkness does not signal the end. It signals a choice: accept the failure, or ignite renewal. In that choice lies the fate of the republic.

Sicily

I believe many people use AI like ChatGPT to ask questions about themselves or to see how they’re perceived by the world or the internet. However, I found it unsettling.

I was looking into some travel options, and one of the places I checked was Sicily. ChatGPT gave me some recommendations, ending with something like…

That’s interesting. I was curious, so I asked:

And its answer hit me hard and deep:

Speechless, I just leave it here with no comment.